Technical Analysis

EURUSD sellers pushes to the downside ahead of the FOMC rate decision

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The EURUSD is moving to a new low on the day and in the process is moving away from the 200 hour MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart. Those MAs come in at 1.0514 and 1.0522 respectively.

Into the FOMC rate decision and moving above that area is needed to increas the bullish bias. If so, the next topside target would come in at the 38.2% of the November trading range at 1.05628. Move above that ans the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 1.05825, followed by the high swing area between 1.05926 and 1.06.097.

That would be the steps for a more bullish move in the EURUSD (a lower USD).

On the downside – which is the dominant bias – the low of the up and down swing area comes in at 1.0448 to 1.0461. Move below that area would target the swing low from November 26 at 1.0424. Below that the 1.0405 is the 50% of the range in the EURUSD since the 2022 low. Move below that, and the low from 2024 comes in at 1.0332.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

  • Resistance Levels:

    • 200-Hour Moving Average (MA): 1.0514.
    • 100-Bar MA on the 4-Hour Chart: 1.0522.
      • A move above this range is required to increase the bullish bias.
    • Next Targets Above:
      • 38.2% Retracement of November Range: 1.05628.
      • 200-Bar MA on 4-Hour Chart: 1.05825.
      • Key Swing Area: 1.05926 – 1.06097.
        • A move through these levels would confirm a stronger bullish reversal.

  • Support Levels:

    • Swing Area Low: 1.0448 – 1.0461.
      • A break below would increase bearish momentum.
    • November 26 Swing Low: 1.0424.
    • 50% Retracement of 2022 Low Range: 1.0405.
    • 2024 Year Low: 1.0332.
      • Further downside targets emerge if these levels are broken.

  • Market Bias:

    • The dominant bias remains bearish, with the pair trading below both the 200-hour and 100-bar MAs.
    • Bulls need to reclaim 1.0514 – 1.0522 to shift momentum, with further gains contingent on breaking higher resistance levels.
    • Sellers maintain control as long as the price remains below these key moving averages and swing levels.

  • Key Focus:

    • Watch for a break above 1.0514 – 1.0522 for potential bullish developments.
    • Monitor support at 1.0448 – 1.0461 and below for further bearish confirmation.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source