The crucial Australian Q2 (April – June quarter) CPI data is due in Australia on Wednesday 30 July at 11.30 am Sydney time:
- 0230 GMT
- 2130 US Eastern time (on Tuesday July 29)
Expectations can bee seen in the screen shot below from investing Live’s economic calendar:
The ‘trimmed mean’, a core (underlying) measure of inflation will be closely eyed. Expectations are for a steady rate q/q, and while not pictured above, expectations for the y/y I have seen centre on a small dip, to 2.7%. I’d suggest that if the trimmed mean y/y does not dip then the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold at its next meeting, on August 11 and 12. A more difficult target could be 2.6% y/y, which is the RBA forecast (around 0.55% q/q).
Via Commonwealth Bank of Australia:
- focus will centre on the all-important quarterly inflation print
- We expect headline CPI rose by 0.8%/qtr in Q2 25, easing the annual rate to 2.2%/yr
- The more policy relevant trimmed mean CPI is expected to have increased by 0.7%/qtr which would see the annual rate dip only marginally to 2.8%/yr – but rounding could see a 0.7%/qtr and 2.7%
CBA is expecting a cut at the August RBA meeting:
- base case remains for a 25bp rate cut given the annual trimmed mean inflation continues to moderate. Market pricing for an August rate cut is over 100%. But it is not a done deal.
- We expect another rate cut in November
- the risk of an additional cut in early 2026
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.