Bank of Japan July meeting ‘Summary of Opinions’. At this meeting the Bank left its short term rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected.
Headlines via Reuters:
- One member said BoJ likely to continue raising rates if economy, prices move in line with its forecast
- One member said given high uncertainty on whether BoJ’s forecast materialises, it must judge outlook without preconception
- One member said no change to view underlying inflation will stall before re-accelerating despite Japan-US tariff agreement
- One member said uncertainty surrounding trade policy and its impact on economy remains large
- One member said BoJ must maintain current accommodative environment and support economy for now
- One member said US monetary policy, direction of FX moves may change sharply depending on US consumer inflation, labour data so must judge policy after looking at more data
- One member said need at least 2–3 months to gauge impact of US tariff policy
- One member said if US economy can weather tariff impact better than expected, downward pressure on Japan’s economy may be small and allow BoJ to exit current wait-and-see mode by year-end at the earliest
- One member said BoJ must proceed with further rate hikes when chance opens up as Japan’s policy rate is still below neutral
- One member said BoJ must raise rates in timely fashion to avoid being forced to hike rapidly, cause huge damage to Japan’s economy
- One member said outlook for inflation expectations important for monetary policy
- One member said rising food, gasoline prices make people more sensitive to price moves, lead to higher inflation expectations
- One member said as Japan’s underlying inflation approaches 2%, importance of actual inflation will likely increase
- One member said we are in a phase where BoJ must shift focus of its communication away from underlying inflation, towards actual inflation and its outlook, output gap and inflation expectations
- One member said Japan is seeing underlying inflation accelerate as price rises increasingly causing second-round effects
- One member said Japan-US trade agreement is very big progress, reduces uncertainty for Japan’s economy
- One member said likelihood of Japan achieving BoJ’s baseline scenario has heightened
- One member said must be vigilant to chance negative impact of tariffs on Japan’s exports could start to appear
- One member said there is chance global economy may overshoot expectations due to expansionary fiscal, monetary policies in Europe, U.S., China and emerging economies
- One member said inflation has remained well above BOJ’s 2% target for more than 3 years and inflation expectations have reached 2%, worried whether Japan could see further rises
- Cabinet Office Rep: Japan’s economy recovering moderately but need to be mindful of risk from continued price rises
There are continued divergent views evident here. I will note that its not too much divison, the ‘on hold’ decision was unimous on the day. The yen has weakend a little on this news.
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Full text is here:
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The Bank of Japan is closely watching consumption and wage trends to help determine when to raise interest rates next. Data released Wednesday showed Japan’s inflation-adjusted wages declined in June for the sixth straight month, as price growth continued to outpace pay gains — a trend that has sparked concerns over a consumption-driven recovery in the world’s fourth-largest economy.
On Thursday, the government lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal year, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on capital spending and the drag from persistent inflation on household consumption.
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of Opinions” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.
Key points about the Summary:
- The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.
- The summary also outlines the Policy Board members’ views on the effectiveness of the BOJ’s current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.
- The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
- The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.
In a few week’s time we’ll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.
- The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.
- The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ’s current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
- The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ’s views on monetary policy.
- The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
- The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.