US:
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected. - The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
of the year with less rate cuts in 2024. - Fed Chair Powell
reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
soft landing is not the base case at the moment, although they are aiming for
it. - The latest US CPI came
in line with expectations with the Core measure continuing to show
disinflation. - The labour market
displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also
yesterday with another beat in Jobless Claims. - The US Consumer Confidence this
week missed expectations although the jobs details were positive. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
the moment.
Australia:
- The
RBA kept its cash rate unchanged as expected at the last meeting as
they are seeing signs that the economy is indeed slowing and that will help to
return inflation back to target. - The
data is supporting the RBA’s stance as the Australian jobs, wages and inflation data all remain lacklustre. - The
Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction while
the Services PMI jumped back into expansion. - RBA
Governor Lowe in his speech reaffirmed that if inflation remains sticky, they
will have to tighten more. - The
market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the AUDUSD pair
recently broke out of the range but rallied back into it soon after. It looks
like the market wants something more on the fundamental side to keep pushing to
the downside. The sellers are likely to step in again around the upper bound of
the range with a defined risk above it to position for another selloff into the
support.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
fakeout below the 0.6370 support and the
strong bounce back into the highs. The price broke through the previous swing
high and it’s now approaching the key resistance around the 0.65 level. This
rally is now getting overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have minor upward trendline that
with the moving averages will act as support for the buyers. If the price
breaks below the trendline, the sellers will have even more conviction to keep
targeting the bottom of the range.
Upcoming Events
Today the only notable release will be the US PCE
report. The data is unlikely to change anything for the market unless we get
some big surprises.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com. Source