ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)

ANZ were previously forecasting a 25bp hike in December but have dragged it forward to November.

• +25bp on November 7
• to take the cash rate to 4.35% from its current 4.1%

ANZ, in brief:

• Given the RBA’s hawkish rhetoric over the past two weeks and an uncomfortably high Q3 CPI (1.2% q/q for both headline and trimmed mean), we now expect the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25bp in November to 4.35%.
• Thereafter we expect a hawkish extended pause.

In response to:

• Australian Q3 2023 Headline CPI +1.2% q/q (vs. 1.1% expected)
• AUD/USD jumped higher on Australian inflation data, November 7 rate hike is likely now.

I concur:

• Australia – market is rapidly pricing in a November rate hike after surging inflation data

AUD/USD update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source