ANZ analysts say the weaker-than-expected inflation buys the RBNZ some time.
The data ICYMI:
ANZ, in brief:
- We now expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR 25bp in February, rather
than November. - Annual CPI inflation decelerated from 6.0% in Q2 to 5.6% y/y in Q3,
weaker than our forecast of 6.1%, and below the RBNZ’s August MPS
forecast of 6.0%. The downside surprise was on the tradables side. - Non-tradables inflation came in at 6.3% y/y, slightly above the August
MPS forecast of 6.2% y/y but below our forecast of 6.5%. - While still far too high, core inflation measures improved, which will be
pleasing for the RBNZ. CPI excluding food, fuel, and energy fell to 5.2%
y/y (6.1% previously). Trimmed mean measures largely eased. At the
30% trim level, inflation eased from 6.0% y/y to 5.6% y/y. Weighted
median inflation eased from 6.6% y/y to 5.0% y/y. - Tradables inflation (largely imported) came in at 4.7% y/y (5.2%
previously), well below our forecast of 5.5% y/y and the RBNZ’s forecast
of 5.8% y/y. Petrol prices were higher, but not as high as we expected.
Petrol price moves will be looked through, at least as long as inflation
expectations continue to ease. - The details of today’s data support our view that domestic-driven inflation
pressures remain a significant problem. However, clear progress was
evident, and that takes pressure off the RBNZ to move the OCR any time
soon. In short, ‘hope for the best’ remains a valid strategy. Accordingly,
we have pushed our forecast hike out to the next meeting, the February
Monetary Policy Statement.
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Upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand dates:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source