US:
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
- The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024. - Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
they will proceed carefully. - The US CPI beat expectations on the headline
figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the market’s
pricing barely changed. - The labour market remains pretty resilient as seen once again last
week with the beat inJobless Claims, although continuing claims missed for a second
time in a row. - The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations by a big
margin with positive revisions to the prior figures, suggesting the consumers’
spending remains resilient. - Fed Chair Powelland other FOMC members continue to highlight the rise in long term yields as doing
the job for the Fed and therefore they are expected to keep rates steady in
November as well. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.
Australia:
- The
RBA kept interest rates unchanged as expected as they are seeing inflation
returning to target with the current level of interest rates. - The
latest monthly CPI showed that core inflation is
slowing. - The
labour market continues to weaken as seen also
last week with the miss in the employment change and the losses in full-time
employment. - The
Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction with
the Services PMI plummeting back into contraction as well. - The
recent RBA Minutes were surprisingly hawkish and it
looks like the central bank might squeeze in another rate hike if the
underlying inflation doesn’t slow faster in the next couple of months. - The
market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the bearish
momentum in the AUDUSD pair remains weak as shown also by the divergence with the
MACD. The
price has recently bounced around the previous lows and rallied back into the trendline and the resistance zone where
we have also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is
where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the
resistance to position for another drop into the lows eventually aiming for a
downside breakout.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4
hour chart, we can see that the recent consolidation formed a descending triangle with the
support around the 0.6285 level and trendline defining the boundaries. A
breakout on either side generally leads to a strong and sustained move in the
direction of the breakout. A break to the upside should trigger a rally back to
the 0.65 handle, while a break to the downside should lead to a selloff back to
the 2022 low.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the resistance around the 0.6370 level where the sellers should step in
and target a drop into the lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to pile in and target the 0.65 handle.
Upcoming Events
Today we will get the latest US PMIs where strong
figures should support the greenback, while weak readings are a bit more
complicated as the USD might weaken due to falling Treasury yields but also
strengthen due to recessionary fears. Tomorrow, we will get the Australian CPI
report where higher than expected figures, especially on the core measures,
could raise the risk of another rate hike from the RBA given the recently
hawkish Minutes. On Thursday, we will see the US Jobless Claims figures, while
on Friday we get the US PCE report which is not expected to change anything for
the Fed at this time.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com. Source