Australian CPI data due today, preview – big undershoot needed to stop the RBA from hiking

Australian inflation data is due today, both for Q2 and for the June month.

Due at 11.30 am Sydney time

  • 0130 GMT, 9.30pm US Eastern time

I posted preview thoughts earlier here:

This now from Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in (very) brief:

  • our forecasts are for an inflation outcome below the RBA’s latest projections from May. But we don’t necessarily view such an outcome to preclude the RBA from delivering another 25bp rate hike in August. The RBA Board will receive an updated set of staff forecasts at the upcoming meeting. So the Q2 23 inflation figures, and yesterday’s labour market data,will be viewed in the context of how it influences the RBA’s inflation and labour market forecasts as well as the perceived risks around those point forecasts. Given that, price pressures for the individual components that make up the CPI basket could well matter here.
  • Our base case remains that the flow of data heading into the August Board meeting and the updated set of staff forecasts will not be enough to dissuade the RBA from increasing the cash rate by 25bps in August. As such, our central scenario remains a 25bp hike, the last of the cycle. A material undershoot of CPI, however, could shift this view. We will firm up our RBA forecast after the release of the CPI data.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source