Ahead of the decision, the market was pricing in a 92% chance of a cut and a 72% chance of a further cut by March. This brings the overnight rate to 2.25% from 2.50%.
Highlights:
- Statement says current policy rate is “about the right level”
- Rate cut was because of economic weakness and expectation that inflation will remain close to 2%
- If the outlook changes we are prepared to respond
- Canadian labor market remains soft, excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually
- Preferred measures of inflation have been sticky near 3%
- Underlying indicators show inflation around 2.5%
- Expects inflation pressures to ease in the months ahead
Macklem said the rate cut was to support the economy through adjustments to US trade policy.
USD/CAD was trading at 1.3928 ahead of the decision.
Here are how the key forecasts changed from the July MPR, which was an unusual one because it outlined different scenarios around tariffs. This is the existing tariff baseline.
GDP forecasts:
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Q3 GDP seen at 0.5% annualized, Q43 seen at 1.0%
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2025 1.2% vs 1.3% prior (was 1.8% in January)
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2026 1.1% vs 1.1% prior
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2027 1.6% vs 1.8% prior
Inflation (CPI)
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2025 2.0% vs 1.9% prior
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2026 2.1% vs 2.0% prior
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2027 2.1% vs 1.9% prior
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.