Bank of Canada survey: Market participants see first rate cut in April

  • Median 2024 estimate 1.2%
  • Probability of a recession in 6-12 months at 48%
  • End 2024 CPI seen at 2.2%
  • First cut seen in April, second in July, third in Sept
  • Year end 2024 rate seen at 4.00% (vs 5.00% now)
  • Year end 2025 seen at 2.88%
  • 75% of participants said risks skewed towards higher rates
  • End 2024 Canadian 5-year yield seen at 3.15% (vs 3.85% currently)
  • Full survey

This survey was done in late September so it’s a bit stale but it’s good idea of what should be expected. It will be interesting to see if Macklem continues to try and push back against rate cuts.

This article was written by Adam Button at Source