- Not too much else has changed in terms of key developments since May
- Consumption growth has been weaker and that feeds into growth projections
- When speaking to businesses, I sense that they are delaying investment decisions
- Does not want to comment on what is happening with the US with regards to Trump and Powell
- I know Powell very well and he is a man with the utmost integrity
- Tariff levels are settling at a higher state compared to historical levels
- Our range of views of the neutral rate remains between 2% and 4% (Ramsden)
- The views of the committee members are varying within this range (Ramsden)
- Would not draw any conclusions based on that range, no collective position on neutral rate (Ramsden)
The comments here don’t really add much colour to the decision today. Bailey’s stance is that their gradual and careful stance in adjusting monetary policy is still very much intact considering the outlook hasn’t materially changed since May. Still, a five to four vote today leans slightly more hawkishly but personally I don’t see it as being a major impediment for them to cut rates once more by year-end. It’s now all on the data to decide that though.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.