Bitcoin has been falling steadily since the ETF
approval as the market “sold the fact” but found some footing recently as the
overall mood improved. On the macro front, the rate cuts expectations are a
tailwind for general risk sentiment which should support the cryptocurrency
further. Moreover, the market participants might also want to position long
into the halving which is expected to happen in April.
BTCUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that BTCUSD sold off from the 48177
resistance all the way back to the 40000 support. At some point, the price
broke below the support, and it looked like we could get a major breakdown, but
the price reversed soon after and left behind a fakeout, which is generally a
reversal pattern. The buyers should now be targeting the resistance again while
the sellers will want to see another break below the support to gain more
conviction for new lows.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the MACD while it approached the key support around the
40000 level. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, once the price broke above the trendline,
we got a confirmation of the reversal and the buyers piled in more aggressively
to position for new highs.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price pulled back into the upward trendline where we can also find the
confluence of the previous swing high level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level and the 4-hour 21 moving average. This is where the buyers will likely
step in again with a defined risk below the trendline to position for new
highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to position for a drop back into the 40000 support.
Upcoming Events
Today we have the US
Employment Cost Index and the ADP data before the FOMC rate decision later in
the day. Tomorrow, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM
Manufacturing PMI. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com. Source