ECB rate cuts expected in 2024, beginning March, as euro area inflation declines rapidly

A not via ANZ on their outlook for the ECB, the main summary points:

Conditions for European Central Bank rate cuts to be in place in early 2024 Euro area inflation is falling rapidly.

  • We think, by early 2024, interest rates will have been held sufficiently high for sufficiently long for the ECB to feel that inflation will retum to target in a “timely manner”.
  • We expect the Goveming Council will start to cut interest rates in March 2024, by which time, the effects of monetary tightening will be weighing on demand, and monetary and credit aggregates are already contracting.
  • The ECB rnay review and discuss the path of reinvestment in Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme. Given current and expected inflation trends and monetary developments, we expect the ECB to proceed cautiously with any future changes, if at all.

EBC dates for the coming year:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source