European Central Bank monetary policy meeting preview – guidance should be less definitive

The ECB meeting is today, Thursday, 27 July 2023. Pretty much everyone expects a +25bp rate hike. I’ve yet to see a differing forecast. If you have one, let me know in the comments, please.

Earlier preview posted here:

A couple of snippets from about the place.

National Australia Bank:

  • 25bp hike almost universally expected
  • ECB guidance should be less definitive given the much softer than expected PMIs and greater evidence of policy taking effect as seen in the tightening of credit conditions across the Eurozone.

Standard Chartered:

  • We expect the ECB to hike 25 bps this week; forward guidance is likely to become less clear.
  • Lagarde is likely to keep the door open to further tightening but will stress data dependence.
  • We lean towards a September pause on weaker economic momentum and easing inflation pressures. However, it will be a close call; an upside surprise to inflation would make a September hike more likely.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source