- US weekly initial jobs claims 227K versus 235K expected
- Fed’s Daly: It’s time to think about adjusting the interest rate
- Fed’s Waller: Fed has long way to go to shrinking size of Balance Sheet
- Fed Waller: Stablecoins are just a new method for making a payment
- More from Waller: Tariffs increase prices one time, central banks can look through that
- Jamie Dimon: I would price in a 40-50% chance of higher US interest rates
- Fed’s Musalem: The outlook is for inflation to increase going forward due to tariffs
Markets:
- S&P 500 up 0.3%
- WTI crude oil down $1.49 to $66.89
- US 10-year yields up 0.6 bps to 4.35%
- Gold up $11 to $3324
- AUD leads, EUR lags
The US dollar rallied on the better initial jobless claims number and continued higher for about two hours afterwards. EUR/USD fell about 50 pips on the move with USD/JPY rising by about the same margin.
From there though, the market turned and the US dollar sellers returned. The euro nearly wiped out the entire move while the yen finished the job. Earlier in the day, the euro and pound had been sold heavily so they weren’t able to get back above par on the day but the ultimate decline was small.
In contrast, early selling in the commodity currencies reversed and they all finished stronger. In particular, the Aussie continued its post-RBA momentum and is near the best levels of the year. That was helped along by a steady bid in equities and improving risk trade.
Notably, bitcoin finally broke above $113,000 to a fresh record high. So far it hasn’t topped at $113,820 but watch for a squeeze higher before the weekend.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.