Headlines:
- US House clears procedural rule vote, paves the way for final bill vote later
- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
- China says it is assessing its position with regards to US-Vietnam trade deal
- US Bessent: I am meeting with the EU negotiator today
- US Bessent: 2-year Treasuries are telling you overnight rate too high
- UK gilts steady back after yesterday’s selloff
- BOJ’s Takata: Can’t say how long we could wait before raising rates again
- BOJ’s Takata: Hard to predict exactly when price target can be achieved
- ECB accounts note few members saw a case for keeping interest rates at current levels
- Switzerland June CPI +0.1% vs -0.1% y/y expected
- Eurozone June final services PMI 50.5 vs 50.0 prelim
- UK June final services PMI 52.8 vs 51.3 prelim
- Japan’s largest union group Rengo sees final average wage hike of 5.25% this fiscal year
- Reminder: US markets to close early today before the long weekend
Markets:
- GBP leads, NZD lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
- US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.26%
- Gold down 0.4% to $3,345.87
- WTI crude down 0.2% to $67.31
- Bitcoin up 0.5% to $109,767
It was mostly sideways action in European trading today as market players are all gearing up towards the US non-farm payrolls data later. That’s the main event as we look to close out the week, with it being a long weekend in the US tomorrow.
The dollar is trading little changed with not much appetite whatsoever, as traders wait on the jobs data to provide the impetus for the next move. EUR/USD is keeping just under 1.1800 with a very large set of option expiries seen at the figure level today. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is steadying back around 1.3650-60 levels as the gilts market also rebounds back a little after UK prime minister Starmer offered his backing to finance minister Reeves and the country’s fiscal path.
There wasn’t too much action all around with USD/JPY also little changed at 143.85 and USD/CAD flat at 1.3580 on the day.
In the equities space, things were quiet as well with US futures keeping little changed. European stocks tried to catch some early momentum but failed to hang on that as they are keeping more tentative and tepid now.
In political news though, the US House managed to clear the procedural rule vote after nearly six hours. Johnson and Trump are on the cusp of pulling it off with the vote for the bill itself set for the early morning.
But for markets, it’s all about the US jobs report next before the long weekend kicks in.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.