The NZD is the strongest currency and the GBP is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed/mostly higher with gains vs the EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF and AUD and declines vs the CAD and NZD.
The USDJPY after waffling up and down in the Asian and early European session is back above the 151.00 level. Recall that was the level that the pair was trading at just prior to the FOMC decision back on November 1 before moving down to 149.18. Those declines have been totally reversed with the price currently at 151.10 to start the NY session. True to the technicals, the low today did stall vs the 150.74 area.
In China, the October China CPI fell by -0.2% YoY and PPI inflation falling -2.6% YoY. This deflationary trend is attributed to weak retail spending and a worsening manufacturing sector. Despite efforts by the Beijing government to stimulate the economy, overall demand showed little improvement in October and the implications are keeping the global via tilting lower. Oil prices in particular are being negatively impacted although prices today are higher. In the US, the private API data stated that U.S. crude oil stocks rose by almost 12 million barrels last week. If confirmed by official data from the EIA (it won’t be released until November 13), that would be the biggest build since February.
US initial jobless claims is the only economic release today with expectations for 218K versus 217K last week. The continuing claims are expected at 1820M versus 1818M last week.
Fed speak today includes:
- Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic at 9:30 AM ET
- Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin at 11 AM ET
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell at 2 PM ET
Powell gave opening remarks yesterday at an event, but did not talk about the economy, the markets reaction to the FOMC rate decision last week, or future policy. Today he participates on a panel with the topic being “Monetary challenges in a global economy”.
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.65 at $75.98 after yesterday’s sharp fall. At this time yesterday the price was trading at $76.04
- Spot gold is trading down $-4.08 or -0.22% at $1945.52. At this time the price was trading at $1964.51
- Spot silver is trading down $0.01 or -0.04% at $22.51. At this time yesterday the price was trading higher at $22.49
- Bitcoin is trading sharply higher at $36,890. That is the highest level since it May 4th This time yesterday the price was trading at $35,458
In the US stock market, the major indices are trading modestly higher. The NASDAQ has been up 9 consecutive days. The S&P has been up for 8 consecutive days. Yesterday the Dow industrial average snapped its seven-day win streak
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 55 points. Yesterday the index fell -40.33 points or -0.12%.
- S&P index futures are implying a gain of 6.5 points. Yesterday the index rose rose 4.42 points or 0.10%.
- NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 2.5 points. Yesterday the index rose 10.56 points or 0.08%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading marginally higher
- German DAX, +0.55%
- France’s CAC, +0.89%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.49%
- Spain’s Ibex, +1.02%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.57% (10 minute delay)
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices closed mostly lower:
- Japan’s Nikkei index, 1.49%. On Wednesday the index -0.33%
- China’s Shanghai Composite Index, 0.03%. On Wednesday the index -0.16%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, -0.33%. On Wednesday the index -0.58%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX index, +0.28%. On Wednesday the index -0.26%
In the US debt market, yields are higher. Today the US treasury will auction off 30-year bonds at 1 PM ET completing the coupon auctions for the week. The 3 and tenure auctions were met with average demand.
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 4.952% +1.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.934%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.551% +3.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.548%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.545% +3.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.562%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.685% +2.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the others at 4.696%
- 2 – 10-year spread is at -41.2 basis points. This time yesterday, the spread was at -37.1 basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread is at -26.9 basis points. This time yesterday, the spread was at -23.5 basis points
The yield spreads continued their reversal back into negative territory. The 2-30 year spread moved briefly into positive territory recently, and the 2 – 10 year spread reached -11.4 basis point at its recent high
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are mostly higher:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source