Rates traders still see an FOMC July rate hike but chance of a September hike has plunged

The US June CPI report continued to show improvement, the pace of price prises slowing again:

The US CPI report for June came in lower than the consensus expected for both headline and core m/m.

• US June CPI y/y 3.0% versus 3.1% expected

• Goldman Sachs response to the US CPI report – affirms a final FOMC rate hike July
• JP Morgan response to the US June CPI report – soft landing path a “smidgeon” wider

The CME FedWatch Tool still shows a 94% chance of a Fed Funds rate hike of 25bp at the July 26 meeting.

This is based on the probabilities of changes to the Fed Funds rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data.

That pricing data for the September meeting, though, has plunged. Last week is was around 18%, and earlier this week circa 22%. Its lower now, circa 13%:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source