All 40 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at its August 12 meeting, following softer inflation and labour market data.
Headline inflation fell to 2.1% last quarter — near the bottom of the RBA’s 2–3% target range — while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in June, its highest in three-and-a-half years. Weak domestic demand and slower household spending, which accounts for over half of GDP, are adding to the case for looser policy.
Most economists — 35 of 38 — see another 25 basis point cut in the fourth quarter, taking the cash rate to 3.35% by year-end. All major banks share this view. Median forecasts suggest one more cut by March 2026 to 3.10%, with rates holding steady through the rest of that year.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.