Reuters latest poll of expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia:
- 31 of 37 economists expect the Bank to cut its cash rate by 25bp next week, on July 8
- six said no change
- and expected to cut cash rate to 3.10% by end-2025 is the median forecast (v/s 3.35% in May poll)
A 25bp cut next Tuesday would be the third this year so far:
- four and perhaps five cuts are seen in total for this year
The background to the meeting is easing inflation and a
slowing economy.
Some comments from the poll report:
Deutsche Bank:
“The May meeting was notably more dovish in the outlook and
that’s going to manifest in cutting in July. I suspect the RBA
will keep the option open for further easing and that’s why
there will be a follow-up cut in August”
Westpac:
“A large part of the reason why the RBA has now found itself
on a rate-cutting path that’s steeper than what it would have
thought at the beginning of the year is because…consumption
has been softer than the RBA anticipated”
The RBA announcement will come at 2.30pm local time on Tuesday July 8:
- 0430 GMT / 0030 US Eastern time
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock news confrence will follow an hour later.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.