Seeking a healthy price prediction on the Indian rupee? Don’t panic, we’ve got you covered.
The Indian rupee has slipped to fresh record lows and is now approaching the psychologically key 90-per-dollar area. Weak foreign inflows, broader risk aversion, and uncertainty around trade discussions have intensified pressure on the currency. The central bank has reportedly been stepping in to slow the decline, but traders still question whether 90 could be reached before the end of the year. Forecasts highlight continued downside risks as markets await the next interest rate decision.
But we don’t care about all that here with this expert technical analysis video! We look at the pure technicals and anticipate what may be a great trade (at your own discretion and your own risk only), based on pure technical expertise and logic. One good thing about pure technical analysis (if you do it well) is that many others do not know what they do not know, so you can not just overly trust the news and analyst explanations. They do not know about that possible hidden hand waiting to buy soon, or that hedge fund that soon may cover a hefty short position.
News and fundamentals can not explain every aspect of INR price prediction. We can’t, either, but here is an original INR price forecast based on the following technical analysis planning (showing you what to watch for next). It is not a trade, it is a ‘heads up’, at your discretion.
Hey, remember, this is only a forecast for the possible upcoming price of INR and its potential reversal, and no one has a crystal ball, so we might be wrong too. Still, there is stong (and simple) technical analysis logic and experience behind the prediction within the vide below. I draw a zone in the futures market and you need to follow that. INR can dip a bit deeper than the zone we highlighted, but if it re-enters that area and then pushes back up through it, that is the moment to pay attention. In short, it is the zone and the behaviour around it that matter more than any precise decimal.
For those who wish to first understand the logic before watching the video, here is a full written breakdown of what it contains, so even if you do not play the video you still understand the full logic of the forecast.
1. Starting on the Weekly Chart: The Critical Long Term Trend Lines
The first part of the analysis begins on the weekly timeframe. The goal is to identify long term structural zones where powerful participants may react.
Using TradingView with the magnet tool, the trend line is drawn from one major weekly low to the next, extended forward with precise alignment. It is important to use the logarithmic scale because the geometry of long term charts changes dramatically without it. Professionals and algorithms rely on log scale, so that is the correct setting for this type of forecast.
Once the primary trend line is plotted, a second nearby line is drawn from the same starting point but anchored to another major low. These two long term trend lines converge toward the same region in the future. On the four hour chart, this convergence lines up almost perfectly with the 110 round number.
Round numbers matter. They attract human and algorithmic behavior, they trigger stops, and they act as magnets in markets. So the fact that two long term trend lines both point to the area around 110 gives the zone added weight.
2. Adding a Measured Move: Why This Pattern Often Works
Next, the video demonstrates a classic measured move. This is not random line copying. It works because many traders and systems aim for multiples like two to one reward to risk. That consistent behaviour creates repetition in the length of market swings.
The high of the first leg is measured against the low, then that distance is cloned and placed from the start of the retracement. That projected second leg also lands near the same 110 zone. It does not need to be perfect. It only needs to show alignment, and here it clearly does.
Now we have three independent reasons pointing to the same place:
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A major long term trend line
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A second long term trend line
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The measured move projection
And all of them point to the region around 110 to 110.5.
3. Defining the Zone: Where the Reversal May Begin
The exact decimal does not matter. What matters is the zone and the behaviour around it.
The combined length of the measured move creates a vertical range. The long term trend lines meet within the same band. The round number 110 sits right in that area. This creates a practical reversal zone, not a single price.
The zone is approximately 110 to 110.5.
This is the place where other traders, algorithms, hedge funds, and long term systems may have a reason to take action. That makes it a more reliable area to monitor than buying at the current price simply because it made a fresh low.
4. What to Watch For: The Trigger Signal
The video explains what the actual trigger looks like.
INR can dip a bit below this zone. That is normal. It can trap sellers before reversing. What matters is not the initial dip but the moment when price re-enters the zone and then crosses back up on a four hour candle.
That is the moment when price structure tells you that sellers may have been trapped and buyers may be stepping in.
The suggested approach:
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Set an alert in TradingView for when the four hour candle crosses up through the zone.
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If price dips below, then re-enters and pushes up, consider that your signal.
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If you trade it, partial profit at TP1 reduces risk.
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After TP1, many traders move the stop to the entry to make the trade safer.
This is technical planning, not a prediction of certainty.
5. Friendly Reminder About Forecasts
This is only a forecast. Nobody has a crystal ball and we may be wrong too. Still, there is strong and simple logic behind everything shown in the video. Trend lines, measured moves, and round numbers are not opinions. They are tools used by traders across the world and they often influence markets whether you notice them or not.
The zone matters more than the precise decimal. If INR drops below it, then re-enters and crosses back up, that is when you should pay attention. That is the essence of this technical INR price prediction.
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This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.