The USD higher vs the JPY (+0.46%) and little changed vs the EUR and GBP to start the US session. The CPI data will take focus when it is released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for the headline to rise by 0.3% versus 0.3% last month. The core is also expected to rise by 0.3%. Last month the court rose by 0.2%. The YoY levels are expected to come in at 2.7% for the headline and 2.7% for the core (up from 2.6%). Inflation remains a sticky. US new-home sales will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 0.720 million versus 0.800 million last month. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 30 year bonds at 1 PM.
US morning markets open under a cloud of geopolitical and earnings risk
US markets begin Tuesday’s session with energy markets in focus and bank earnings setting the tone, as investors digest the drone attacks of tankers around Black Sea and the official kickoff of the Q4 earnings season.
Overnight headlines confirmed that four oil tankers were struck near the Black Sea CPC terminal by drones. The CPC terminal is a key conduit for Kazakhstan’s crude exports into global markets, and the growing pattern of strikes has pushed Brent and WTI more than $1 higher as traders price in potential supply disruption and widening geopolitical risk.
The tanker incidents arrive as Washington continues to weigh military and covert options against Iran, keeping energy markets on edge. While no formal decision has been announced, the combination of Black Sea risks and Middle East tensions has created a clear upward bias in crude, reinforcing inflation-sensitive positioning ahead of US CPI later this week.
Earnings season kicks off — US banks in the spotlight
Today marks the official start of Q4 earnings season, with US financials leading the charge.
The focus is squarely on the health of the US consumer, loan growth, credit quality, and net interest margins as the Federal Reserve pivots toward an easier policy stance. JPMorgan and Bank of New York Mellon, have announced this morning.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) EPS $4.63 versus $4.97 expected (MISS), revenue $45.8 billion versus $46.11 billion expected (MISS). Shares of JPM are up marginally despite the miss. Yesterday the shares fell -1.43%.
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Bank of New York Mellon (BNY): EPS $2.02 versus $1.91 expected (BEAT). Revenues came in at $16.0 billion versus $14.72 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading down 1.3% in premarket trading
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Delta Air Lines (DAL): EPS $1.64 versus $1.53 expected (BEAT). Revenues $5.19 billion versus $5.14 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading down -5.11% despite the beat.
Later this week, Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley follow, giving investors a full read on how large financial institutions are navigating slowing growth, shifting rate expectations, and geopolitical risk.
Big tech spotlight later this week: TSMC on Thursday
Outside the banks, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) is one of the most important earnings events of the week.
TSMC reports Thursday before the US open, and its guidance will be critical for:
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AI-driven chip demand
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Global tech supply chains
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Semiconductor capex trends
Given its central role in Nvidia, Apple, and the global AI ecosystem, TSMC’s outlook has the power to move both tech stocks and global risk sentiment.
Key economic events for the rest of the week
Other economic releases scheduled this week include”
Wednesday – January 14
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Core PPI m/m: 0.2%
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PPI m/m: 0.2%
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Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.4%
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Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% vs 0.0% prior
These releases will show whether consumer demand is holding up and whether pipeline inflation pressures are easing or accelerating after CPI.
Thursday – January 15
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US Weekly Jobless Claims: 215K vs 208K prior
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Empire State Manufacturing Index: 0.8 vs -3.9 prior
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -1.6 vs -10.2 prior
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UK GDP m/m: 0.1% vs -0.1% prior
Thursday will be a key growth check for both US manufacturing and the UK economy.
Friday – January 16
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BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks — markets watching for rate-cut guidance and UK inflation commentary
US stocks are marginally lower to start the day
US major indices the futures proxies trading lower
- Dow industrial average -92 points
- S&P index –
- NASDAQ index -43 point
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.