USD
-
Continuing its downtrend after a July rebound.
-
Softer data and dovish Fed signals raise odds of September rate cuts.
-
Markets now price slightly more than 25bps cut for September.
-
Powell at Jackson Hole could outline restart of easing cycle.
-
View: Further USD weakness; EURUSD targeting 1.21 by year-end.
EUR
-
Focus on June trade data and Thursday’s flash PMIs.
-
Recovery in manufacturing expected to support sentiment.
-
Geopolitics (Ukraine/Russia) could add volatility.
-
Main driver remains USD direction.
-
View: EURUSD to recover, stable vs GBP and CHF; EURCHF bias 0.94–0.95 range.
GBP
-
Focus shifts to UK CPI next Wednesday.
-
Hawkish BoE stance and stronger GDP supportive but mostly priced in.
-
Resistance at 1.38 unlikely to break sustainably until later this year.
-
BoE stuck between weak growth, soft labor market, and high inflation.
-
View: GBP supported by attractive carry, but risks from fiscal issues make outlook cautious.
AUD
-
RBA cut 25bps to 3.6% in August, guidance largely unchanged.
-
Labor market strong: unemployment at 4.24%, big full-time jobs gain.
-
Inflation pressures and wage growth remain elevated.
-
View: Cautious easing path with two more cuts (Nov, Feb) to 3.1%. AUDUSD seen at 0.68–0.70 mid-2026; favor longs at 0.64 or below.
JPY
-
USDJPY drifting lower to 146–147 as Fed cuts priced in.
-
Local reports suggest BoJ facing pressure for hawkish shift.
-
CPI expected around 3.3%, above 2% target.
-
View: BoJ could hike in December (not fully priced); prefer selling USDJPY upside for yield pickup.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.