- Prior week 236K revised to 237K
- Initial jobless claims 233Kvs 240K estimate
- 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 241.5K vs 245.25K
- Continuing claims 1.964M vs 1.956 million estimate
- Prior week continuing claims 1.974 million
- 4- week moving average of continuing claims 1.857M vs 1.852M. This is the highest level since December 2021.
The initial jobless claims data are being overshadowed by the US jobs report which came in stronger than expectations.
The market is pricing in 51 basis points of cuts between now and the year end versus 63 basis points ahead of the release. US nonfarm payroll rose by 147K with private payroll rising 74K (weakest since October 2024). Government payroll rose by 73K which seems like a high number. Most of the jobs in the government sector were state and local. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1% from 4.3%.
US yields have moved higher with the 10-year now up around 5.9 basis points at 4.35% from -2.4 basis points just before the release. US stock futures are implying a higher opening with the NASDAQ now up 73 points. The Dow industrial average is up 130 points.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.