The USD/CHF pair experienced a sharp drop following a Washington Post article reporting that Trump is considering global tariffs targeting only “critical materials.”
This news pushed the pair below its 100-hour moving average at 0.9072 and its 200-hour moving average at 0.90354, reaching a low of 0.90077, within a swing zone between 0.8997 and 0.9011. Buyers stepped in at this level, and when Trump dismissed the article as untrue, the pair rebounded. However, the recovery stalled just below the 100-hour moving average at 0.9072, peaking at 0.90664.
Since then, the price has fluctuated between the 200-hour moving average (0.90354) and the 100-hour moving average (0.9072). If sellers regain momentum and push the price below the 200-hour moving average, the swing zone will become the next target. A break below that could lead to a test of the 38.2% retracement of the December low and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, both converging near 0.89817—a key support level likely to attract buyers, with stops positioned below.
Looking ahead, the release of Swiss CPI data on Tuesday could influence the pair’s trajectory. The CPI is expected to decline by -0.1%, reflecting lower inflation, which has enabled the Swiss National Bank to maintain a dovish stance. Combined with the Federal Reserve’s pause in easing, this dynamic has provided USD/CHF with a bullish bias that could limit downside potential.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source