With nearly 1/2 of the North American session is now over (and most of the day over), and the USDJPY remains in a very narrow 32-pip trading range for the day. That is only 31% of what is a normal day over the last trading month (the normal range for a day is 102 pips). Why bother?
When markets are non-trending, it is time to think about trend. Why? Because non-trending transitions to trending.
Putting it another way, the price is not going to stay at the current levels for long. There will be a break at some point and when there is a break, there is the potential for momentum in the direction of the break. A trend type move is when the most money is made (and lost). If you can get on a trend-like move, you can make some good trading profits.
In the video above, I take a look at what would need to be done to increase the bearish and bullish bias.
On the downside, the price needs to stay below the swing area between 147.738 and 147.867 (see hourly chart below). Stay below, and extend below the rising 100 are moving average 147.45, and the 200 are moving average of 147.286, would open a door for a test of the 147.00 swing area. Break below that level and a 38.2% retracement of the September trading range comes in at 146.603.
On the topside, the swing area up to 147.867 followed by the high price from last Friday out 147.945, would need to be broken to increase the bullish bias. Get above and stay above, would open the door for a topside trend line at 149.754 going forward. The high price from 2022, came in at 151.938.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source