To watch the Central Bank Policy Panel at the ECB summit:
ECB Lagarde:
- We have reached our 2% target on inflation
- Need to continue to be vigilant on inflation
- ECB is in a good position
- Data dependent and decide meeting by meeting, and no commitment to any particular rate path..
- For a major change in the USD status it would take a lot of time. It is just not gonna happen overnight. There is clearly something that has been broken.
- Getting more and more concerned about the truth. The role of AI, how public opinion can be manipulated is concerning. I am concerned about the truth and the watchdog of data.
Fed Powell:
- US in a good position
- Ignoring tariffs, inflation is at a good place
- Expect to see higher readings inflation but we are learning
- The Fed would likely have rights by now without the risk from the tariffs
- With the US economy solid, we think It is prudent to wait to see the effects from the tariffs
- We expect to see higher readings on inflation in the summer.
- A solid majority see it appropriate to reduce rates later this year
- That will depend on the latest data. In particular the data on inflation and carefully watching the labor market.
- Looking for unexpected weakness in the labor market.
- We are going meeting by meeting. Cannot say if July is too soon to cut rates. I would not take any meeting off the table but we will be data dependent.
- I would say that US policy is modestly restrictive. Growth is solid, the labor market is a solid.
* 9:55 AM ET: US stocks are mixed with the Dow Industrial Average of 100 points or up 0.22%. The S&P is down -0.15% and the NASDAQ index is down -0.31%.
- On Trump attacks, I am very focused on doing my job (applause)
- Debt path is not sustainable. Needs to be addressed sooner or later.
- All I want is an economy with price stability and maximum employment. Are we on a path to doing that.
- When asked if he will stay on as Fed Governor after his term as Fed Chair is complete in 10 months, he says he has nothing to say on that.
- ON what he would suggest to the next in charge, stay out of political issues
BOK Rhee:
- We believe tariffs to be deflationary
BOE Bailey:
- Any increase in inflation is an increase in inflation
- Are we going to get second round effects from the pickup and inflation
- I am seeing some signs of some softening in the economy and in the labor market.
- The direction of interest rates still continues to be downward.
- It is a bit too soon to see the price effects from tariffs.
- We could see weaker demand and effects on the supply chains.
* The GBPUSD has dipped to negative on the day
- What think is important is how restrictive this policy in the current context.
- Policy remains restrictive and will continue to remain restrictive. The level of restrictiveness will tend to come down over time.
- I expect a level of restrictiveness to come back down toward where it is more neutral.
- The whole concept of restrictiveness is critical to our policy. We
- We see our policy as currently restrictive expected to be less restrictive over time
- We are a long way off from the USD losing its reserve currency status
- ON what he would suggest to the next in charge, be humble
BOJ Ueda:
- Headline inflation has been above 2% for almost 3 years, but underlying inflation is still below 2%.
- Trade is being negotiated, and try to stay away from that.
- Any rate hikes will depend on three components of inflation dynamics
- Current rate is below the neutral rate.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.