Technical Analysis

Kickstart the FX trading day for Oct 25 w/ a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

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In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD.

EURUSD:

Key Levels:

  • 100-hour moving average: 1.0807 (support)

  • 200-hour moving average: 1.0836 (resistance). Get and stay above is needed to increase the bullish bias

  • A break higher would target the 200-day moving average: 1.0870 (next target). The 61.8% of the range since the June low is at 1.08746 increasing that areas importance going forward.

  • Move below the 1.0810 and the the 100 hour MA at 1.0807 and the swing low (August 1)at 1.07767 would be targeted. (support)

Current Situation:

  • EURUSD broke above 100-hour moving average, indicating short-term bullish bias.

  • Price testing 200-hour moving average, encountering resistance.

  • Buyers and sellers are battling between hourly moving averages.

Next Moves:

  • Break above 200-hour moving average needed to strengthen bullish bias.

  • Break below 100-hour moving average and swing low could lead to further decline.

USDJPY

Key Levels:

  • Swing area: 151.856-151.937 (resistance)

  • 200-day moving average: 151.407 (support)

  • 61.8% retracement (July high): 153.397 (resistance)

  • Move below the 200 day MA and the 50% retracement (broken) is the next target at 150.757 (support)

  • Move below the 50% and the 100-day moving average: 150.612 (support)

Current Situation:

  • USDJPY testing trades above and below swing area near 151.90

  • Price bouncing within swing area, indicating indecision.

  • Trading range is modest, suggesting potential for breakout.

Next Moves:

  • Break above swing area and 61.8% retracement would fuel upside momentum.

  • Move below 200-day moving average could strengthen bearish bias, targeting 50% retracement and 100-day moving average.

Additional Insights:

  • Quiet trading on Fridays may lead to range-bound activity.

  • Momentum away from swing area could trigger next directional move.

GBPUSD

Key Levels:

  • 100-day moving average: 1.29678 (support)

  • Psychological resistance: 1.3000 (resistance)

  • Falling 100-bar moving average (4-hour chart)becomes a target on the break of 1.3000. That level comes in at 1.3043 (resistance)

  • 50% midpoint of range (August low) is also in play above at 1.30488 (resistance)

  • A move below the 100 ay MA at 1.29678 would target a support swing level at 1.2938 (support)

Current Situation:

  • GBPUSD broke below 1.2938 support, then reclaimed it.

  • Price trading above and below 100-day moving average but not above and moving toward 1.3000.

  • Resistance at 1.3000, a key psychological level.

Next Moves:

  • Break above 1.3000 and falling 100-bar MA could target 1.30488.

  • Fall below 100-day moving average and 1.2938 support could lead to further decline.

Additional Insights:

  • Price action suggests indecision, seeking direction.

  • Clearing 1.3000 resistance could shift bias to bullish.

  • Failure to hold above 1.2938 support may increase bearish pressure.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source