- US June NFIB small business optimism index 98.6 vs 98.7 expected
- German finance minister says EU ready to hit back if can’t reach a fair deal with US
- UN trade agency warns of further instability caused by new trade war deadline
- France May trade balance -€7.76 billion vs -€8.25 billion expected
- Japan trade negotiator Akazawa says cannot tolerate 25% tariffs on autos
- RBA’s Bullock: Our communication strategy is not failing
- Germany May trade balance €18.4 billion vs €15.5 billion expected
- Japan trade negotiator Akazawa says had phone call with US commerce secretary Lutnick
- RBA’s Bullock: People got too excited about mention of 50 bps in May meeting
- RBA’s Bullock: We want to be sure on inflation
- RBA’s Bullock: It is appropriate to have a cautious, gradual stance on easing
- RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 3.85% in latest policy decision
- FX option expiries for 8 July 10am New York cut
- Taiwan says haven’t received notice from US regarding tariffs yet
It’s been a very slow session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The only highlight was the RBA’s rate decision. The central bank surprised by keeping the Cash Rate unchanged but clarified that they just wanted to see the next quarterly CPI data as they don’t want to rush on monetary easing.
We haven’t got any other meaningful news after the RBA but just the same old tariff headlines like the German finance minister threatening to hit back if they won’t reach a fair deal with the US or the Japanese negotiator delivering some token remarks on trade talks with the US.
In the markets, long term yields continue to climb, especially the German ones which is not something you would see if the market was worried about the central bank undershooting the target. The ECB worry might be misplaced.
The US dollar remains supported after the better than expected NFP report last week, but we haven’t really seen a sustained trend yet. Maybe, the US CPI next week could provide that but we will need hot figures.
Equities erased all the losses from yesterday’s Trump’s tariff letters as the market continues to look through the trade noise given all the deadlines, delays, pauses and so on.
The American session doesn’t look like it’s going to be any better in terms of the newsflow but we should get more letters and/or trade deals before tomorrow’s deadline.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.