The latest poll on the Reserve Bank of Australia from Reuters, in brief:
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RBA to hold steady in April: All 39 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the cash rate at 4.10% on April 1.
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Two cuts expected in 2025: Median forecast sees 25 bps cuts in May and September, bringing the rate to 3.60% by Q3.
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Cautious easing approach: RBA is likely to cut gradually due to still-elevated core inflation (3.2%), low unemployment, and recovering growth.
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May cut hinges on inflation data: Around 75% of economists expect a cut in May, pending Q1 inflation results.
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Major banks aligned on April: ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac all expect rates to remain unchanged next week but differ on the pace and depth of easing.
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Market pricing in line: Interest rate futures broadly reflect the poll’s expectations.
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RBA wary of over-easing: Analysts say the RBA is aware that deep rate cuts could reignite inflation due to ongoing supply constraints.
The RBA statement will be at 2.30 pm Sydney time on April 1:
- 0330 GMT
- 2330 US Eastern time
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock’s new conference will follow an hour after.
Earlier:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.