The Australian jobs report was released in the Asian Pacific session. It came out much weaker than expectations. Below is a summary of the key data points along with the expectations.:
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Unemployment rate: 4.3% (expected 4.1%) — highest since late 2021
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Employment change: +2,000 jobs (expected +20,000)
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Full-time employment: -38,200 jobs
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Part-time employment: +40,200 jobs
Some key takeaways from the report:
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Unemployment surprise: Jobless rate rose more than expected, signaling emerging weakness in the labor market
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Soft hiring: June’s minimal job gain fell well short of forecasts, following a slight decline in May
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Job quality shift: Drop in full-time roles offset by part-time gains, raising concerns about employment stability
The AUDUSD felt shortly after the report as RBA rate cut expectations rose. Momentum is shifting and continue that momentum into the North American session. However, buyers have helped to push the price up in the morning North American session.
Looking at the hourly chart, the decline took the price below the 38.2% retracement at 0.65096, and the low from yesterday at 0.6495. The 50% midpoint was the next target at 0.6483. The price fell below that level, but then rebounded back up to the 0.6495 level before restarting the move to session lows (see the price action on the chart above).
The low price extended to 0.64535 just below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the June low at 0.6457. Since then, the price has seen a rebound back toward the 50% midpoint at 0.64833 and also the low prices from last week – just above that midpoint level. The current price is just below that level.
If the price were to extend back above that midpoint and low level from last week, we could see further corrective price action with the broken low from yesterday at 0.6495 and the broken low price is the next target, followed by the broken 38.2% retracement at 0.6506 – 0.6509.
Of note for traders, is that the prior corrective bounce moved back up to resistance at 0.6495, and found willing sellers as traders focused on the downside in the shift from the jobs report.
If this bounce is similar, we should see sellers near the 50% retracement level keep a lid on the corrective action..
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.