Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Map Analysis & Potential Next Move

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Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Map Analysis & Potential Next Move

Key Observations from the Chart

  1. Current BTC Price: 102,566 USDT

    • Price is currently sitting below a large cluster of short liquidations around 103,000 USDT.
    • This means if price moves above 103,000, a short squeeze could trigger a rapid push higher.

  2. Major Liquidation Clusters

    • Short Liquidations (Bullish Setup) Above 103,000 USDT:
      • Large 50x and 100x leveraged short liquidations are stacked from 103,000 to 104,500.
      • If price breaks above 103,000, we could see a rapid spike toward 104,500 as trapped shorts are forced to buy back their positions.
    • Long Liquidations (Bearish Setup) Below 101,000 USDT:
      • Long liquidations are accumulating below 101,000 USDT.
      • If price drops below 101,000, a liquidation cascade could push BTC lower toward 98,000–99,000 USDT.

  3. Cumulative Liquidation Trends

    • The red line (long liquidation leverage) is declining, meaning fewer long positions are being liquidated now.
    • The green line (short liquidation leverage) is rising, suggesting shorts are accumulating and could be squeezed.

Potential BTC Price Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bullish Short Squeeze Toward 104,500 USDT

🔹 Trigger: BTC Breaks Above 103,000

  • If BTC pushes above 103,000, we will likely see a short squeeze, sending price up quickly toward 104,500.
  • The 100x leverage traders are trapped in this range, meaning liquidations could trigger a parabolic move.
  • Trade Setup:✅ Long Entry: Above 103,000 USDT🎯 Target: 104,500 USDT (possible extension to 105,500 USDT)🛑 Stop-Loss: Below 102,000 USDT

🔹 Confirmation Signals:

  • Increasing buy volume on the breakout
  • Delta shifting strongly positive (indicating aggressive buying)
  • Green liquidation line dropping as shorts get wiped out

Scenario 2: Bearish Long Liquidation Cascade Toward 98,000 USDT

🔻 Trigger: BTC Breaks Below 101,000

  • If BTC fails to hold 101,000, liquidation pressure could build, pushing price toward 98,500–99,000 USDT.
  • The red line (long liquidation leverage) would increase, signaling longs getting trapped and liquidated.
  • Trade Setup:✅ Short Entry: Below 101,000 USDT🎯 Target: 99,000 USDT (possible extension to 98,000 USDT)🛑 Stop-Loss: Above 102,500 USDT

🔻 Confirmation Signals:

  • Increasing sell volume on breakdown
  • Delta shifting strongly negative (indicating aggressive selling)
  • Red liquidation line rising as long traders are liquidated

Which Move is More Likely?

✔ Short Squeeze Toward 104,500 USDT is More Likely

  • Shorts are stacking above the current price → Market makers may push price above 103,000 to trigger liquidations.
  • No major long liquidation clusters until 101,000, meaning downside pressure is weaker unless a new sell-off starts.

Probability Estimate:

  • 🚀 Short Squeeze Above 103,000 → 104,500 (70% Chance)
  • 📉 Break Below 101,000 → 98,000 (30% Chance)

Final Trading Plan for BTC

📌 BULLISH TRADE (HIGHER PROBABILITY)

  • Long above 103,000, targeting 104,500–105,500
  • Stop-loss at 102,000

📌 BEARISH TRADE (LOWER PROBABILITY)

  • Short below 101,000, targeting 99,000–98,000
  • Stop-loss at 102,500

🔥 Conclusion: BTC is in a highly leveraged zone, and a break above 103,000 USDT is more likely to trigger a short squeeze rally toward 104,500–105,500. However, if BTC fails to hold 101,000, we could see a liquidation cascade toward 99,000–98,000.

Trade Bitcoin at your own risk only and visit ForexLive.com for additional views. 📊

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com. Source