Commonwealth Bank expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike cash rate by 25bp next week

Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists on the RBA meeting next week.

In summary from a longer piece:

  • In another finely balanced decision,we expect the RBA to hike the cash rate one final time in August to 4.35%
  • The RBA noted in July that fresh staff forecasts and the economic data flow would be available for the August decision.
  • On balance we expect a still strong labour market and lingering concerns around the inflation and wages growth outlook will outweigh a slightly lower than expected June quarter inflation print and weak retail data
  • An updated set of forecasts will be published by the RBA in the August Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday
  • We expect the RBA to retain their forecast for headline and underlying inflation to only return to the top of the target band by mid-2025, despite the Q2 23 CPI printing a little softer than the RBA’s implied profile from the May SMP
  • We expect the August rate increase to be the final rate hike in this cycle, with monetary policy easing to get under way in the first half of 2024

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting is on Tuesday 1 August 2023. the statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time

  • 0430 GMT
  • 1230 am US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source