- The revisions show that the the labor market is slowing down
- I saw that the risk to inflation is greater than the risk to employment.
- The risk to the employment side may becoming more in balance to the inflation side
- does not think jobs data would have changed this week’s FOMC decision.
- In many ways job market still looks good.
- I still am not hearing from businesses that there on the verge of letting go a lot of people.
- I do think with new information it’s appropriate to reevaluate
- For today, still expected one cut this year.
- Need to see how things evolve over coming months.
- Tariffs being in the psychology of the consumer for a much longer time period.
- Tariffs are not rolling out like textbook examples.
- If the tariffs are successful, Fed can’t just look through them.
- Will take a while for firms to price for tariff rise.
- We are in a very difficult environment now.
- Do raise the salient to the employment side, but we can’t ignore risks on the other side (inflation).
- There are risks on both sides of Fed’s mandate
- Active debate on how restrictive Fed policy is right now
By topic:
Labor Market
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The revisions show that the labor market is slowing down
-
In many ways, job market still looks good
-
I still am not hearing from businesses that they’re on the verge of letting go a lot of people
-
Does not think jobs data would have changed this week’s FOMC decision
-
Do raise the salient to the employment side, but we can’t ignore risks on the other side (inflation)
-
The risk to the employment side may be becoming more in balance to the inflation side
Inflation & Risks
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I saw that the risk to inflation is greater than the risk to employment
-
There are risks on both sides of Fed’s mandate
-
Tariffs are not rolling out like textbook examples
-
If the tariffs are successful, Fed can’t just look through them
-
We are in a very difficult environment now
Tariffs & Consumer Behavior
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Tariffs being in the psychology of the consumer for a much longer time period
-
Will take a while for firms to price for tariff rise
Policy & Outlook
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For today, still expected one cut this year
-
Need to see how things evolve over coming months
-
Active debate on how restrictive Fed policy is right now
-
I do think with new information it’s appropriate to reevaluat
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.