The White House NEC Director Hasset is speaking on CNBC saying:
- The employment data has been very unreliable
- The data needs to be modernized
- Need a fresh set of eyes at the BLS.
- It would be incumbent on the BLS to explain the revisions.
- To make sure the data is transparent we are going to get highly competent people in their and have a fresh start.
- We expect a lot of tariffs to be borne by the foreign companies.
- It is very disappointing that we have Fed votes that are separated along party lines.
- The jobs number were slower than expectations
- The jobs report is before the big, beautiful bill
- There are a lot of good reasons to be optimistic about the second half of the year.
- Sec Bessent is leading the nomination list for the Federal Reserve board member.
- There will be a couple of deals finalized this week.
- For the most part the tariff uncertainty is behind us.
- The tariff situation is not done a president is always open to a deal.
The comment that the Fed decision is partisan is interesting and an obvious observation. Of course partisan goes both ways. Doses but Hassett might be a partisan nominee for the Fed continue that discussion point.
Regarding the data, since the beginning of time, there have been revisions to date as a result of different seasonals because of a number of reasons. Economists analyze the data over time and make changes the variations. In April 2024 there is a large 800 K revision to the downside. Trump said that the revision came after the election, but it was clearly before the election. Kevin Hassett said that came after Biden dropped out suggesting that the revisions weren’t reported because they wanted to prop up Pres. Biden (and not Harris?). Anyway, what happened?
What Happened:
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In April 2024, the BLS released benchmark revisions that showed a net reduction of over 800,000 jobs for the 12-month period ending March 2023.
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This large revision was due to updated data from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records, which are more comprehensive than the preliminary monthly survey estimates.
Why Revisions Occur:
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Each month, the BLS estimates payrolls using the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.
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Once a year, it reconciles those estimates with actual employment data reported by businesses to state UI programs.
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These UI records cover nearly all employers, so they’re considered the gold standard.
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The process is called the annual benchmark revision and usually impacts March data but is released months later.
Why the 800K Revision Was So Large:
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Initial payroll estimates overstated job growth during that period.
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Possible causes included:
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Misclassification of job losses or gains during post-COVID adjustments.
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Business closures or slow hiring not captured in the monthly survey.
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Overly optimistic birth/death model assumptions, which estimate job creation from new businesses.
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Breakdown:
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Revisions affected many months, but biggest downward changes occurred in late 2022 and early 2023.
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The revised data indicated that the labor market had been weaker than previously thought, even as inflation remained high—complicating the Fed’s policy stance.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.