Reserve Bank of Australia should cut now – “Global Economic Outlook Goes Into a Tailspin”

Reserve Bank of Australia should cut rates tomorrow, Tuesday, April 1, 2025, says this piece in the Wall Street Journal:

• RBA Should Cut as Global Economic Outlook Goes Into a Tailspin

more to come

It’s a detailed, well-argued piece. If you can access the Journal, well worth a read.

In really brief:

• things have changed significantly, and the RBA needs to throw off its ultra cautious stance and deliver a cut Tuesday
• With the world’s major economies speeding toward “liberation day” and what will likely be the biggest trade war in generations, bets on a U.S. recession are rising, and the world growth outlook is in a tailspin.

I have posted some previews earlier, long story short is that of all the forecasts I’ve seen, all except 1 are for the RBA to remain on hold tomorrow. I’m not brave enough to go against that strong a consensus so my tip is for on hold also, but hats off the Glynn at the WSJ for this article, FWIW I think he is correct about a cut being the correct choice. I reckon if it was the RBNZ meeting tomorrow they’d lob out another 50bp cut.

Earlier:

• CBA expects RBA on hold this week, with a more dovish tone

• Poll shows expectations are for the Reserve Bank of Australia to stay on hold
• Westpac sees April RBA meeting as ‘dead rubber’, still eyes May rate cut
• Goldman Sachs moves its RBA rate cut forecast from April to May

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.