Chicago Federal Reserve Bank
President Austan Goolsbee is not there yet on a September rate cut
more to come
- Fed’s fall rate-setting meetings will all be live
- Some job market data show it’s solid, some show concerns
- Fed would need to cut rates if labor market is deteriorating; not sure that’s what’s happening
- Need multiple months of favorable inflation reading to get comfort needed to cut rates
- So far have had a couple of months of mild inflation; latest CPI had concerning rise in services inflation
- Uneasy thinking of tariffs as one-and-done inflationary shock, given levies on semiconductors, new tariff announcements
- What underlies economy would naturally lead to lower rates
- Entirely possible to cut in anticipation if you think inflation is on path to 2%, then stop or hike if information contradicts
- Some important data coming in before Fed’s Sept meeting, not implying that I can’t reach a decision by then
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.