- 67 of 73 economists (92%) expect no change at next policy meeting in September
- 45 of 71 economists (63%) expect BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% in Q4 2025 (up from 54% last month)
- Of 40 economists specifying a timeline for the BOJ to move, 38% see the move coming in October, 18% in December, 30% for January next year
- 22 of 29 economists either strongly or somewhat approve of the US-Japan trade deal
- 21 of 31 economists feel concerned about fiscal expansion pressure after LDP upper house election loss
The pressure is certainly on and as things stand, markets are pricing in ~17 bps of rate hikes by year-end. All that being said, it is best to be reminded that the BOJ has a propensity to disappoint under Ueda’s stewardship. When it comes to taking a bolder step, their approach has been to err towards rather being safe than sorry.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.