- ECB’s Rehn: An April ECB pause is possible if data indicates something else
- EU weighs targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs – WAPO
- Trump aides draft tariff plans as some experts warn of economic damage – WAPO
- ECB’s Escriva: We’re getting closer to the 2% inflation goal
- The positive risk sentiment is holding up so far in the session
- ECB’s Rehn: If data verifies baseline, the right reaction should be to cut in April
- Eurozone February unemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.2% expected
- Eurozone March preliminary CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expected
- BoE’s Greene: Rising inflation expectations are a concern
- UK March final manufacturing PMI 44.9 vs 44.6 prelim
- Eurozone March final manufacturing PMI 48.6 vs 48.7 prelim
- Germany March final manufacturing PMI 48.3 vs 48.3 prelim
- France March final manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs 48.9 prelim
- Italy March manufacturing PMI 46.6 vs 48.0 expected
- EU has strong plan to retaliate against US tariffs if necessary – von der Leyen
- Switzerland March manufacturing PMI 48.9 vs 50.5 expected
- Spain March manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 49.9 expected
- What are the main events for today?
- UK trade secretary says hopeful for Trump tariffs to be reserved in the next weeks/months
- UK March Nationwide house prices 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Trump tariffs remain in focus as the countdown continues
- RBA governor Bullock: We’ve not lost confidence on inflation goal
- RBA governor Bullock: We’ve not made up our mind on May decision
- RBA governor Bullock: We judge that policy is restrictive to get inflation back to target
- FX option expiries for 1 April 10am New York cut
- RBA leaves its cash rate unchanged at 4.10%, as expected
Overall, it’s been a quiet session with the positive risk sentiment after Trump’s overnight comments holding up well. We saw a bit of a turnaround though as the Washington Post reported that White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on at least most imports to the US.
The article contained lots of warnings though as it added that White House cautioned that several options are on the table and no final decision has been made.
WAPO then reported that the European Union is weighing whether to hit the big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs. This is an old news though as the Financial Times reported on the matter already back in February.
This is the expected noise that we will likely endure until the official announcement tomorrow.
In other news, the Eurozone CPI came out a bit softer than expected with services inflation now coming down more substantially. This has strenghtened the market probability for a 25 bps cut at the upcoming ECB meeting to 84%.
In the American session, the focus will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US Job Openings data decorated with potentially more tariff noise.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.