The USDCHF is the weakest of the major currency pairs today, reflecting a stronger Swiss franc. The move follows reports that the U.S. and Switzerland may soon announce a trade deal that would cut tariffs from 39% to 15%, spurring fresh selling in the pair. Recall that President Trump unexpectedly raised tariffs on Swiss imports to 39% on August 1, well above those applied to the EU. The steep increase was part of the administration’s “reciprocal tariff” strategy targeting countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S.—and Switzerland fits that bill, given its strong exports of precision equipment, watches, and gold.
The potential rollback comes as the Supreme Court prepares to rule on key tariff-related challenges, which could prompt the administration to reconsider its broader trade approach. The timing is notable, as the White House also signaled plans to reduce tariffs on Indian imports (currently near 50%). The timing is curious.
In any case, the tariff development appears to be giving the CHF an extra boost.
From a technical perspective, momentum is aligning with the fundamentals. The pair fell away from its 200-hour moving average in the Asian session near 0.8061 and has since broken below a key swing area between 0.8013 and 0.8019, the 38.2% retracement of the rise from the September low at 0.80107, and the psychological 0.8000 level.
On the 4-hour chart, the price now sits below both the 100- and 200-bar MAs at 0.8007 and 0.7995 (blue and green lines on the chart below), reinforcing bearish control. Staying below these levels keeps the focus on the next downside target near the 50% retracement at 0.79758.
If buyers manage to halt the decline, a recovery back above 0.8019 would be needed to restore confidence and weaken the sellers’ grip.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.