Goldman Sachs extended its oil outlook to 2035 and the message is simple: brace for a dip before the next leg higher.
We still forecast Brent/WTI to decline to 2026 averages of $56/52 (vs. $63/60 forwards) as the last big supply wave keeps the market in surplus. But we think oil prices will pick up in 2027 as low prices take their toll on non-OPEC supply.
2026 is going to be a painful one for oil producers, they warn. They see a 2 mb/d surplus driven by stronger-than-expected non-OPEC supply (ex-Russia) that drags brent into the mid-$50s (spot at $63.84 today). Goldman Sachs warns the market will stay heavy through mid-2026 as that supply wave crests.
2027 flips the script as low prices choke non-OPEC output, demand keeps grinding higher, and the market tightens into a 2027 second half deficit. Prices will need to rise from there to start incentivizing long-cycle investment.
Goldman sees $80 brent by late 2028 and says that’s the long-run clearing price needed to:
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replace declining legacy fields,
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fill the investment gap after a decade+ of under-spend,
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offset Russia’s structural decline,
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and cover still-solid global demand into the 2030s.
They say there will be no US shale rescue this time. And refined product margins remain a loud signal that the world needs higher crude prices to fix the supply side.
Risks skew both ways.
Near-term:
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Brent could collapse into the $40s if non-OPEC stays resilient or the economy rolls over.
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Or spike above $70 if Russian production falls
Goldman recommends the classic “down then up” positioning:
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Short the 2026Q3–Dec 2028 Brent timespread to express the surplus.
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Producers should hedge the 2026 downside.
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Consumers should hedge 2028+ upside.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.