-
Prior +22K (revised to -4K)
-
Private Payrolls +97K vs +62K expected. Prior 38k
-
Manufacturing Payrolls: -6K vs -8K expected. Prior -12k.
-
Government Payrolls +22K vs -16K prior
-
Unemployment Rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior 4.3%
-
Unrounded unemployment 4.440% vs 4.324%
-
Average Earnings MoM +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior 0.3%
-
Average Earnings YoY +3.8% vs +3.7% expected. Prior 3.7%
-
Average Workweek Hours 34.2K vs 34.2 expected Prior 34.2
-
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.4% vs 62.3% prior
-
U6 Underemployment 8.0% vs 8.1% prior
-
Two-month net revision -33K
This is the first jobs report since the government shutdown. This was initially scheduled for just a few days after the shutdown but was cancelled and now finally rescheduled. This is also the last jobs report before the Dec 10 FOMC decision. The market is pricing in just a 21% chance of a December rate cut and it’s hard to see how this report could change that.
The climb in the unemployment rate led to some rise in Fed cut odds but I’d be skeptical about that as it came with rising participation. Fed officials will see this as generally good news and certainly not a reason to cut. One spot I do watch in the data is temp help services and that fell 15.9K, which may be a better signal than the headline.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.