I highlighted the vote in Tennessee today as a potential market mover for a variety of reasons and it remains a spot to watch.
The Republican favorite Matt Van Epps is trailing 45.7% to 53.1% with about 43% of the votes in. If that’s the result it would be a disaster for Republicans in a House seat they won by 21 points in a district Trump won by 22.
But it’s not over yet, the votes in so far are from the urban and more-Democratic leaning part of the district. The New York Times model still has Van Epps winning by 3.3 points. Keep an eye on it though as even a narrow Republican win would be damaging for the MAGA agenda.
Update: Just after 9 pm ET, the estimate is up to R +5.8. That’s a bit more comfortable and more in-line with prediction markets at the start of the night.
For what it’s worth, the prediction markets are now heavily clustered around the 3-9% range.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.