JP Morgan’s headline call that bitcoin could reach $170,000 within a year if it continues to “trade like gold” grabbed attention, but the bank’s deeper analysis points to a far more immediate driver: Strategy’s (MicroStrategy’s) influence on market stability.
The note from the bank needs some reading between the lines. The gold comparison is a long-running valuation model the bank has used for years; the real story lies in whether Strategy can avoid selling any of its sizeable bitcoin holdings.
The strategists reiterated that their volatility-adjusted gold framework still implies a theoretical bitcoin price near $170k. But they placed greater emphasis on the near-term vulnerabilities in crypto markets, especially bitcoin’s slide into a bear phase triggered by risk aversion, higher-rate uncertainty for 2026, and persistent fears surrounding Strategy’s financial positioning.
The firm highlighted two key catalysts:
1. Strategy’s ability to hold its bitcoin
Market anxiety has grown that Strategy may be forced to sell bitcoin if price declines drive its mNAV ratio below 1. Arkham Intel estimates bitcoin holdings fell from ~484k to ~437k tokens in November. CEO Phong Le has suggested sales could be triggered if mNAV slipped under 1; it currently sits around 1.1. JPMorgan points out that Strategy has since raised $1.4bn in cash, enough to cover dividends and interest costs for roughly two years without tapping its bitcoin reserves. If mNAV stays above 1 and the firm avoids liquidation, sentiment toward bitcoin should stabilise.
2. MSCI’s January decision
On 15 January, MSCI will decide whether to exclude companies with more than 50% of their assets in digital tokens. Such a move would eject Strategy from major indices and could prompt $2.8bn in passive outflows, JPMorgan estimates. A favourable ruling, however, could prompt both Strategy and bitcoin to rebound sharply toward pre-October levels, potentially reigniting momentum toward previous highs.
JPMorgan’s gold-based model may support a $170k valuation over the medium term, but its own analysis makes clear that bitcoin’s path hinges less on abstract correlations and far more on the binary risks tied to Strategy’s balance sheet and index eligibility.
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Bitcoin’s near-term direction hinges less on long-run correlations and more on whether Strategy avoids becoming a forced seller. A stable mNAV, a credible $1.4bn cash buffer, and a favourable MSCI ruling would remove major tail risks and unlock renewed crypto inflows. Failure on either front would overshadow any gold-based valuation arguments.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.