Central Banks

A summary of the Fed Chair Q&A comments by topic

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Employment/Labor Market:

  • Labor market remains tight.
  • Labor supply and demand are moving towards a better balance.
  • Labor demand still exceeds supply.
  • Expects labor market rebalancing to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation.
  • Stronger economic activity is the main reason for needing to do more with rates.
  • It’s good we’ve seen meaningful rebalancing in the labor market without much increase in unemployment.
  • Some softening in the labor market is anticipated.
  • Soft landing in the labor market is not guaranteed.

Interest Rates:

  • Current policy stance is restrictive.
  • The Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.
  • Rates will remain restrictive until inflation is moving down to 2%.
  • Real interest rates are meaningfully positive.
  • Decision on future rate cuts will be based on the economy’s needs.

Inflation:

  • Inflation remains well above the 2% long-run goal.
  • Strong commitment to return inflation to 2%.
  • Reducing inflation may require below-trend growth and some softening of labor conditions.
  • Longer-term inflation expectations seem well anchored.
  • Three recent inflation readings have been positive, but more data is needed.

GDP/Economic Activity:

  • Growth in real GDP has exceeded expectations.
  • Consumer spending has been a significant driver of GDP.
  • The economy has significant momentum.
  • Risks to the economy include strikes, government shutdowns, and higher long-term rates.
  • GDP growth stronger than expected might require higher interest rates.

Other Comments:

  • The Fed is focused on its dual mandate.
  • Decisions will be based on data and risk assessments.
  • The Federal Reserve will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
  • The goal is to restore price stability for maximum growth potential.
  • Energy prices, especially if sustained at high levels, can impact inflation and spending.
  • The primary concern is restoring price stability.
  • Households are generally in good shape due to a strong labor market and rising wages.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source