Waller has taken a really bearish turn on the economy. The other Fed candidates are arguing for rate cuts based on productivity but he’s arguing for them based on a poor economy.
- 2026 could turn out to be a better year for economy, hopes that helps job market
- Inflation is above target but should come down over next few months
- Inflation expectations are anchored
- Fed can go at a moderate pace, doesn’t need dramatic action
- Job market says Fed should continue to cut rates
- Fed is 50-100 bps above neutral
- Hart to say tariffs caused job market weakness
- Inflation is under control and the Fed will keep it under control
- Doesn’t see much downside risks for tariffs
Waller met with Trump this week for the Fed job. This probably isn’t what the President wanted to hear.
Maybe he will get the job but in all likelihood, Waller will look back on this as an episode that destroyed his reputation and credibility for nothing.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.