- Due to inventories, we are talking about June prices more than April
- Notes that he talked with a home-improvement company who won’t be doing Memorial Day promotions
- Some of the shifts we are seeing are both negative for employment and mean higher inflation
- Data at this point is still perfectly solid but people are wondering if consumer spending is at risk
- He sees “cage match between exhausted consumer and emboldened manufacturer”
In late March, Barkin said it was going to ‘take awhile’ to get clarity on the impact of tariffs and that it would take confidence on the inflation outlook to cut rates.
The Fed funds futures market is pricing in 116 bps in easing in the next year with probabilities for May slightly above 50%.
Here is the full interview.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.