- Prior was -1.3%
- Ex transport +0.2% vs -0.2% prior
Revisions to November durable goods orders:
- Durable goods +5.3% vs 5.3% prelim
- Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.4% vs +0.7% prelim
The factory orders report is good news but much of the gain disappears when you strip out transportation, which is volatile. The downgrade to November non-defense cap goods orders ex air is a mild disappointment.
Background:
The Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders—commonly known as the Factory Orders report—is a comprehensive monthly release from the U.S. Census Bureau. It serves as a vital barometer for the health of the U.S. industrial sector, tracking the dollar value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers.
Unlike the earlier “Advance” Durable Goods report, which only covers items intended to last three years or more (such as cars, appliances, and aircraft), the Factory Orders report provides a complete picture by including non-durable goods. These are fast-moving items like food, chemicals, and textiles. Roughly half of all factory orders are durable goods, making this report essential for understanding total manufacturing demand.
A critical feature of the Factory Orders report is that it contains the final revisions to the durable goods data released approximately one week prior. Because the initial “Advance” report is based on early, incomplete survey samples, it is notoriously volatile. The Factory Orders release incorporates more detailed data and a larger sample size, often leading to significant adjustments in the durable goods figures.
Also released was the wholesale inventories report:
- Inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Wholesale sales +1.3% vs -0.4% prior
These numbers are solid and should help GDP, thought today’s weak trade balance report will undoubtedly lead to a (large) downward revision to the Q4 GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed later today.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.