Via oilprice.com
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Oil prices remain firm, though rangebound, so far this week on heightened geopolitical risk and supply-demand signals. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil flows, are keeping risk premiums elevated, with advisories for vessels in the region pushing crude slightly higher.
Markets will digest U.S. inventory data and economic indicators to come, NFP and CPI particularly, parsing the weekly oil stockpile reports and U.S. demand cues that could reinforce or weaken near-term price momentum.
On the supply side, OPEC+ policy settings and broader global output trends (including production in Russia, the U.S. and Kazakhstan) continue to influence sentiment, while forecasts of a broader oil surplus in 2026 temper upside expectations over the medium term.
The U.S. dollar’s direction, tied to inflation and Fed expectations, remains a background driver for crude pricing.
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Expectations I had seen centred on:
- Headline crude +0.8 mn barrels
- Distillates -1.3 mn bbls
- Gasoline -0.4 mn barrels
This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).
- It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
- The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.
The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
- Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
- the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.