TGIF.
The USD is little changed to start the North American session as traders await the US January PPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are for a +0.3% MoM increase, while the YoY rate is forecast to ease to 2.6% from 3.0%. The dollar is trading mixed against the major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — as markets look for the next catalyst.
EURUSD
The EURUSD has moved back above its converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1800, a level that now serves as the key barometer for both buyers and sellers today.
If buyers can maintain control above those moving averages, the next upside focus shifts toward the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.1830, an area that capped gains yesterday. Monday’s high at 1.1834 reinforces this resistance zone. A sustained break above both levels would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward 1.1860, followed by 1.1890.
On the downside, a move back below the hourly moving averages would shift attention to a swing support area between 1.1760 and 1.1778. A break below that region would target the 100-day moving average near 1.1693 as the next major downside objective.
For the week, the pair has traded within roughly a 70-pip range, highlighting a non-trending environment. Such compression typically precedes a larger directional move once a breakout occurs.
USDJPY
The USDJPY moved lower during the Asian-Pacific session and briefly dipped below its 100-hour moving average (155.76), but downside momentum quickly faded. The pair rebounded and stalled against a swing resistance area between 156.20 and 156.28.
Heading into North American trading, the 100-hour moving average acts as close support, while the swing area above serves as resistance. Traders will look for a decisive break on either side, with momentum likely following the direction of that breakout.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has traded in a choppy range today. During the early European session, sellers leaned against the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3508, triggering a rotation lower toward 1.3475.
On the downside, the 200-day moving average at 1.3445 remains the key technical level. The pair has tested this moving average five times recently, producing only modest breaks (about 8 pips) without sustained momentum. A clearer bearish bias requires a firm break and hold below this level.
On the topside, a move back above 1.3508 would shift momentum back toward buyers, targeting resistance near 1.3537, followed by swing resistance zones at 1.3582–1.3590.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.